Atlantic Update: Hurricane Erin Maintains Strength, Additional Disturbances Being Monitored

2 more waves are being watched behind Erin

The Atlantic basin remains active, highlighted by Hurricane Erin in the western Atlantic and two tropical disturbances that could develop in the coming days.

Erin’s structure has improved over the past 24 hours, with deep convection consolidating near the center and upper-level outflow becoming better established. Maximum sustained winds are holding near 105 mph, and the system may intensify modestly while it remains over warm sea surface temperatures and under relatively weak shear. A reconnaissance mission will sample the cyclone shortly to refine current intensity estimates.

The hurricane is tracking north-northwest at roughly 10 mph, embedded within a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Model guidance continues to indicate a turn toward the north and then northeast as Erin rounds the western periphery of a mid-level high southeast of Bermuda. Although the core of Erin is expected to stay offshore, its expansive wind field means impacts will extend well beyond the center. Hazardous surf and rip currents will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Atlantic Canada this week. In the shorter term, tropical storm conditions and storm surge flooding are likely to affect the Outer Banks of North Carolina beginning late Wednesday, while Bermuda may experience tropical storm conditions Thursday into Friday.

Farther east, a tropical wave in the central Atlantic is becoming increasingly organized. This disturbance has a 60% chance of development through seven days and may approach the northern Leeward Islands late this week. Another wave, currently south of the Cabo Verde Islands (Invest 99L), remains disorganized with only a 30% chance of development, as environmental conditions are expected to turn less favorable later in the period.

With climatological peak season nearing, additional tropical development across the basin should be anticipated.