September 10 Is Peak Hurricane Season — Here’s Why 2025 Is Different

The Atlantic basin remains quiet

September 10 marks the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but this year is shaping up to be unusually quiet. As of now, there are no active tropical systems, and forecasts show no signs of development in the coming week. For coastal residents, that brings a rare moment of calm during what is typically the most anxious time of the season.

Climatology tells us that the odds usually look very different. Roughly three out of every four seasons since the mid-1960s have featured at least one named storm active on September 10. About half of those seasons even had a hurricane in progress on this date. Beyond just the single day, September is historically the busiest month of the year, producing four to five named storms, with two to three strengthening into hurricanes and at least one reaching major hurricane status. Nearly half of the season’s overall energy is typically generated in September alone.

That context makes this year’s lull stand out even more. Hostile atmospheric conditions are suppressing development despite warmer-than-average waters across much of the Atlantic and Gulf. Dry, stable air, strong wind shear, and recurring Saharan dust outbreaks have kept tropical disturbances from organizing. Invest 91L, which showed promise just days ago, quickly collapsed under these unfavorable ingredients.

So, what does the immediate future hold? Forecast models remain consistent: no tropical systems are expected to form, making this one of the calmest peaks in recent memory. But the lack of storms now doesn’t mean the season is over. September and October often bring rapid changes in environmental patterns, which can quickly ignite activity. For now, though, the Atlantic remains still at the very moment it is usually most alive.